Durable Goods

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Durable Goods Orders Sink Even as Jobless Claims Fall

Published: Thursday, 27 Sep 2012 | 8:40 AM ET

By: Reuters

New durable goods orders in August fell by the most since the recession and a separate reading on the broader U.S. economy came in much weaker than expected. But weekly jobless claims sank to a two-month low, in a hopeful sign for the labor market.

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods in August fell by the most in 3 1/2 years, pointing to a sharp slowdown in factory activity even as a gauge of planned business spending rebounded.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3 percent increase instead of the previously reported 4.1 percent gain.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders for durable goods — items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years — to fall 5 percent.

Last month, the drop in orders reflected weak aircraft and automobiles demand. Boeing [BA  69.814    0.434  (+0.63%)   ] received only one aircraft order in August, down from 260 in July, according to information posted on the plane maker's website.

Transportation equipment tumbled 34.9 percent after racing ahead 13.1 percent in July. Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.6 percent after dropping 1.3 percent the prior month. Economists had expected this category to rise 0.3 percent after a previously reported 0.6 percent fall.

 

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 1.1 percent, halting two straight months of hefty declines. That was above economists' expectations for 0.5 percent gain.

But shipments of these goods, which are used to calculate equipment and software spending in the gross domestic product report, fell 0.9 percent after declining 1.1 percent in July. The weakness suggested third-quarter economic growth would probably not improve much from the April-June's 1.3 percent annual pace.

Manufacturing, which has been the main driver of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession, has been hit by turbulence from sluggish domestic and global demand.

Fears that the U.S. Congress could fail to avert a "fiscal cliff" — the $500 billion or so in expiring tax cuts and government spending reductions set to take hold in 2013 — have also left businesses with little incentive to boost production. (Read More: Corporate America Sweats as US Nears “Fiscal Cliff.”)

Second-Quarter GDP Cut to 1.3%

Economic growth was much weaker than previously estimated in the second quarter as a drought cut into inventories, setting the platform for an even more sluggish performance in the current quarter against the backdrop of slowing factory activity.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.3 percent annual rate, the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2011 and down from last month's 1.7 percent estimate, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate on Thursday.

Output was also revised down to reflect weaker rates of consumer and business spending than previously estimated. Outlays on residential construction export growth were also not as robust as had been previously estimated.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected second-quarter GDP growth would be unrevised at a 1.7 percent pace. The economy grew at a 2 percent pace in the January-March period.

(Read More: Why the State of the US Economy Defies Description.)

The worst drought in half a century, which gripped large parts of the country in the summer, saw farm inventories dropping $5.3 billion in the second quarter after slipping $1 billion in the first three months of the year.

Data in hand for the third-quarter suggest little improvement in the growth pace, even as the housing market digs out of a six-year slump. Manufacturing, the pillar of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession is cooling, hurt by fears of tighter U.S. fiscal policy in January and slower global demand.

The GDP report also showed that after-tax corporate profits unexpectedly rose at a 2.2 percent rate instead of the previously reported 1.1 percent increase. After-tax profits fell 8.6 percent in the first quarter.

Weekly Jobless Claims at Two-Month Low

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in two months.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000, the lowest level since July, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to show 3,000 more applications than previously reported.

 

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 378,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 4,500 to 374,000, breaking five straight weeks of increases.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report and no states had been estimated.

The labor market has been mired in weakness as worries about higher taxes and deep government spending cuts in January, the ongoing debt problems in Europe and slowing global growth lead employers to be cautious about ramping up hiring.

Sluggish job gains and stubbornly high unemployment spurred the Federal Reserve this month into launching a third round of bond purchases to drive down already low interest rates. (Read More: Fed Hawk: Keep Rates at Zero Until 5.5% Unemployment.)

The U.S. central bank vowed to buy $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities each month until it sees a sustained upturn in the labor market.

The unemployment rate has been stuck above 8 percent for more than three years, the first time this has happened since the Great Depression, a hurdle for President Barack Obama's quest for a second term in office.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 4,000 to 3.27 million in the week ended September 15.

The so-called continuing data covered the week for the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived.

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